Next Friday, Oregon will kick off the Pac-10 tournament, the seventh-seeded Ducks facing 10th-seeded Washington State in San Jose, Calif.
That's set in stone. There may be five conference games left to play over the next two days, but none of the results will affect the Ducks and Cougars.
Oregon could still move into a sixth-place tie in the standings with Washington, but the Huskies own the tiebreaker thanks to a win over USC — the highest-placing team either has beat — and so the Ducks must participate in one of two play-in games Friday night. At 12-16, Oregon would have to win the tournament just to get back to .500 for the season.
Despite all that, the energy around the team is markedly improved since two weeks ago. The Ducks have put a seven-game losing streak behind them, and have won two of three entering this afternoon's regular-season finale against Oregon State in McArthur Court at 4 p.m.
The two teams last met on Dec. 29, when Oregon posted a four-point win in Corvallis. Each endured a ghastly stretch recently, going a combined 3-17 since both swept the Washington schools at home Jan. 17-19. But each is also coming off a win in its last game, and the Ducks are particularly encouraged by the recent play of freshman forwards Nicole Canepa and Ellie Manou.
"The biggest growth has been our post players, and just their development and how they've come along," UO coach Bev Smith said. "They've probably had their best games since that Oregon State game. It's just a feeling that the light has turned on a little bit."
Win today and it's three of four for Oregon, and a chance to make it four of five against the last-place Cougars next Friday. That would in all likelihood set up a quarterfinal game Saturday afternoon against second-seeded Cal, a team the Ducks had traditionally played tough until a 19-point blowout loss in Eugene on Feb. 9.
The Beavers are also locked into a first-round game next Friday, against Arizona. The only question is whether the Wildcats could catch OSU in the standings, with Arizona holding the tiebreaker for the No. 8 seed based on its win over Oregon in Tucson a month ago.
Oregon State would like to keep eighth place for itself by winning today, and putting together momentum of its own for next week's tournament.
"We want to make sure we go in and play hard for 40 minutes, and execute our game plan," said OSU leading scorer Ashley Allen, the Beavers' only senior and an Oregon transfer who scored two points for the Ducks in her first collegiate regular-season game, on Nov. 15, 2003, in McArthur Court.
On the bench that day on her way to redshirting the season was Oregon's lone current senior, Kaela Chapdelaine. A fierce competitor, Chapdelaine's minimal scoring output over the years has failed to tell the story of her contributions, which are felt mostly in the areas of defense, rebounding and leadership.
"She does so many things for our team and for me," Smith said. "I've always said, I'm going to miss her in ways that I don't even know yet because of all the little things she does. ...
"I love her intensity, I love her determination and I love her competitiveness. She really is a rock both offensively and defensively. You know she's going to try to do what it takes to win the game, or help her team be successful."
All that said, Chapdelaine is coming off a career scoring performance, having made all six of her three-point attempts on the way to 25 points in last week's win over UCLA. While the point total was atypical, her six rebounds and six assists were business as usual.
"I'm trying my best just to think about this as any other game," Chapdelaine said. "This is my last home game, we're playing the Civil War — there's a lot more than just it being senior day. So I'm excited for it, and I will cherish the moment. But more than anything I'm focused on just getting a win."